Market Reports

Official forecasts and supply/demand estimates are some of the biggest single drivers of short-term price moves in agriculture - a report release day routinely moves prices more than a week of ordinary trading. This page collects the ones worth watching: how expensive food is worldwide right now, what the US expects wheat, corn and soybeans to sell for this year, and how tight supplies are for 17 more commodities.

FAO Food Price Index

The UN FAO's monthly index of international food commodity prices - the closest thing to a single number for "is food getting more or less expensive worldwide."

The index stood at 133.3 in August 2026, +2.5% from a year earlier.

• Cereals: 116.3
• Vegetable Oils: 196.9
• Dairy: 119.2
• Meat: 127.9
• Sugar: 106.4

Base period 2014-2016 = 100. Source: FAO.

USDA WASDE

USDA's monthly official estimate of production, stocks and season-average prices — the most closely watched forecast in global agriculture.

Wheat

• Production (2025/26): unchanged at 1,985 million bushels.
• Ending stocks (2025/26): unchanged at 920 million bushels.
• USDA's WASDE report projects a $6.40/bu season-average price for the 2026/27 marketing year (+26% vs. $5.06/bu estimated for 2025/26).

Corn

• Production (2025/26): unchanged at 17,021 million bushels.
• Ending stocks (2025/26): USDA lowered its estimate by 23 million bushels (-1.2%) to 1,922 million bushels.
• USDA's WASDE report projects a $4.80/bu season-average price for the 2026/27 marketing year (+16% vs. $4.15/bu estimated for 2025/26).

Soybeans

• Production (2025/26): unchanged at 4,262 million bushels.
• Ending stocks (2025/26): unchanged at 325 million bushels.
• USDA's WASDE report projects a $12.00/bu season-average price for the 2026/27 marketing year (+14% vs. $10.50/bu estimated for 2025/26).

USDA PSD Online — Global Stocks-to-Use

The stocks-to-use ratio is how big the world's carryover stockpile of a commodity is compared with how much of it gets used in a year. A low ratio means a thin cushion — a poor harvest or an export disruption has more room to move prices; a high ratio means more slack to absorb bad news.

Sorted from tightest to most comfortable supply. What this ratio means →

• Sorghum 4.9%
  ▼ 0.5pp vs. 2025/26
• Soybean Meal 5.1%
  – 0.0pp vs. 2025/26
• Groundnut Oil 6.1%
  ▲ 0.1pp vs. 2025/26
• Groundnuts (Peanuts) 7.3%
  ▼ 1.0pp vs. 2025/26
• Sunflower Oil 7.7%
  ▲ 0.4pp vs. 2025/26
• Coffee 7.8%
  ▲ 0.2pp vs. 2025/26
• Soybean Oil 7.9%
  ▲ 0.4pp vs. 2025/26
• Rapeseed (Canola) 10.4%
  ▲ 0.6pp vs. 2025/26
• Coconut Oil 11.3%
  ▼ 0.9pp vs. 2025/26
• Palm Oil 11.6%
  ▼ 0.5pp vs. 2025/26
• Corn 17.9%
  ▼ 1.9pp vs. 2025/26
• Soybeans 19.6%
  ▼ 0.7pp vs. 2025/26
• Wheat 26.7%
  ▼ 0.1pp vs. 2025/26
• Rice 32.9%
  ▼ 1.4pp vs. 2025/26

Ending stocks divided by total use (domestic consumption plus exports), USDA current marketing-year estimate. Source: USDA FAS PSD Online.

Other Market Reports

A few more official sources worth knowing about:

• IMF Primary Commodity Price System — Monthly reference prices for a broad range of globally traded commodities.
• EU JRC MARS Bulletin — Monthly European crop condition and yield forecasts from the EU's Joint Research Centre, published as PDF reports.