Why Grain Prices Differ Across Europe: Surplus, Deficit and Freight
Published · 3 min read
The EU has no customs borders inside it, and wheat is wheat. Yet the prices reported from its markets differ considerably. Averaged over 2025, the weekly market prices the European Commission publishes came to about 190 euros per tonne in Bulgaria, around 200 in Romania and Hungary, 205 to 210 in France and Germany, 219 in Spain, 230 in Italy and 240 in Portugal. Those gaps are not noise - they follow a clear logic.
Surplus regions and deficit regions
Some regions grow far more grain than they use and have to sell the rest elsewhere; others use more than they grow and have to bring grain in. In a surplus region, the local price settles at roughly what the grain would fetch at the nearest export port minus the cost of getting it there - traders call this export parity. In a deficit region, it settles at roughly what imported grain costs plus the transport to the mill or feed plant - import parity. Bulgaria and Romania, with large surpluses shipped out through their Black Sea ports, sit at the low end: markets such as Varna or Dobrich. Italy, Spain and Portugal import large volumes of grain every year and sit at the high end, with markets such as Milan, Bologna or Lisbon.
Freight and logistics
The difference between those two anchors is largely transport. A farm far from a port or a navigable river pays more to move its grain, so its price sits further below the port price. A port like Rouen, where grain is loaded for export, reflects the world market almost directly; an inland market reflects the world market minus the journey. When freight rates, river levels or rail capacity change, these gaps widen or narrow even if the world price stands still.
Why a single week can mislead
The Commission's figures are reported by each member state for representative markets, and the delivery terms behind them are not identical - some prices are ex-farm, others delivered to a port or a mill - and qualities differ from market to market. Some markets also report irregularly, which leaves gaps. That is why comparing a market with its own history, or its usual distance from the EU average, tells you more than comparing two markets in one particular week. The region pages on this site show both: the market's own chart and how it ranks against other markets reporting for the same week.
What it means for the price you get
For a farmer, the local price is the world or futures price plus or minus a local difference that reflects exactly these factors - what traders call the basis. Knowing whether your region is a surplus or deficit region, and how far it is from the nearest port, explains most of why your price sits where it does relative to the headline numbers.
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Frequently Asked Questions
- Why is wheat cheaper in Bulgaria than in Italy?
- Bulgaria produces far more wheat than it uses and exports the surplus through Black Sea ports, so local prices sit at export parity - the port price minus transport. Italy imports large volumes, so its prices sit at import parity - the cost of imported grain plus delivery.
- Which market is "the" EU wheat price?
- There is no single one. Euronext milling wheat futures in Paris are the most-used reference for trading, and the Commission also publishes averages, but physical prices always differ by region.
- Why do some EU markets have gaps in their price history?
- Member states report weekly prices for representative markets, and not every market reports every week - for example when there is little trade outside the harvest season.